The American nightmare: over at last?

Cast your minds back, if you will, to the 1990s. The USA had ‘won’ the cold war. The long economic boom was in full swing. Few had heard of Osama bin Laden, outside a coterie of Middle Eastern policy specialists, and even fewer took his threats seriously. America felt, for the most part, prosperous, vindicated and relatively invulnerable.

We all know what happened next – the contested presidential election of 2000 brought George W Bush and the neo-cons to power who swiftly disengaged from international initiatives like the Kyoto protocol, the dot-com bust gave a strong hint that US capitalism might not be as robust an institution as it looked, 9/11 reminded everyone that not everyone shared the American dream, Iraq and Afghanistan were invaded, and swiftly degenerated into running sores that looked like an object lesson in the consequences of hubris.

And sure enough, we saw the effect on global public opinion. We’ve just released the latest wave of our regular tracking with BBC World Service of the way people globally see the influence of different countries in the world. When we started tracking perceptions of US influence in 2005, the proportion of people across our 14 tracking countries who felt that it had a ‘mainly positive’ influence in the world stood at 38% - hardly stellar when set against the nearly 60% that saw Canadian influence as positive in that year. But as the body count in Iraq mounted, it dropped still further to 28% by 2007 – behind not only all the other major powers of Europe and North America but behind Russia and China, too.

That now looks to have been the low point. In the last year of Bush’s presidency positive views of US influence breached the 30% mark, continued to improve in 2009 and this year, with Barack Obama’s first term well underway, are now back at 40% and have overtaken negative views. The rehabilitation, if not complete, looks at least well on track. The USA has China in its rear-view mirrors once again in terms of global public perceptions.

What to conclude then? The upswing in positive perceptions of the US appears to date from the time when the country lost its appetite for projecting its strength in a unilateral way and started trying to mend fences with the international community. At the same time, the countries still felt to be projecting the most positive influence (Germany, Canada, the EU generally) are those that appear most fully committed to international cooperation, while as China’s economic strength and assertiveness has grown, its positive influence is felt to have declined. As far as international public opinion is concerned, it would appear, cooperation, stability and – perhaps - humility rules.