Not-So-Healthy Debate

We noted a couple of weeks ago that the Obama administration had run into the sand on one of its main campaign promises – to close the Guantanamo Bay detention centre. But next to the the liquidizer of political capital that is healthcare reform, the fate of the detainees in Cuba is small beer.

A David Brooks op-ed in the New York Times last week argues forcefully that, such is the endemic lack of trust in government in the USA, that a would-be reforming administration needs to move slowly and incrementally on a hugely contentious issue like healthcare to build the confidence of the electorate rather than attempting a 'big bang' approach. The Times now advocates a 'weak and feckless' strategy of retreat and regrouping, rather than a 'heedless and arrogant' drive to push the reforms through in the teeth of huge opposition.

Curiously, the assumption that trust in government is at rock bottom isn't borne out by our regular public attitudes tracking data. For ten years, we've been measuring the degree to which people across the world trust a range of institutions to act in the best interest of society, and recorded a twenty-two point jump in Americans' trust in government between late 2007 and late 2009. Certainly, 2007 represented the dog days of the Bush administration, and the shine has certainly come off Obama and his team since our poll was taken, but still. A net trust rating of +25 isn't the worst starting point for major reform.

What looks more likely is that Obama's problems getting healthcare reform through is less because Americans across the board don't trust their government, and more because the nation remains hopelessly, viciously, ruinously divided on a whole range of emotive issues. Despite a filibuster-proof majority in Congress, Obama in fact invested a lot of time and energy consulting on the shape of a reformed healthcare system, trying to forge a 'bi-partisan' plan with support from both Republicans and Democrats. It's far from clear that much common ground exists. The resulting fudge, as the Times correctly points out, hasn't satisfied anyone and the wrangling has in the meantime allowed the reforms to be painted – ludicrously - as something akin to a Communist takeover of the federal government. This is one instance where, ironically, a less inclusive approach might have proven less divisive in the longer term.

Guantanamo: not closed, and no cigar for Obama

A year into his presidency, Barack Obama recently confirmed what most already realized: that he would fail to fulfil the promise given in his inaugural speech to close the detention centre at Guantanamo Bay within his first year of office.

Between the reluctance of representatives in Congress to accommodate Guantanamo detainees in their districts, the unwillingness of most of the US's international allies to receive detainees themselves and the political impossibility of repatriating them to countries seen as breeding grounds for terrorism such as Yemen – as well as an alarming lack of coordination between US government agencies, as BBC Radio 4 revealed last night - the problem has proved a real headache for the administration, and Guantanamo remains open.

The Obama administration has sometimes appeared to be out of step with US public opinion on some domestic issues in his first year – notably on healthcare reform – and this is an area where failure to fulfil an election promise may actually go down well with the electorate. A new CBS poll suggests that a majority of Americans oppose the closing of Guantanamo.

But other countries are likely to view the issue very differently. Guantanamo has been a running sore for the US's global image and the promise to close it was one of the most powerful symbols of change from the Bush years put forward by the new administration.

Our annual tracking of perceived country influence last year revealed a continued improvement in views of US influence by the global public as Obama took office. With this year's results due in a few weeks' time, we will see whether this improvement is persisting – or whether the latest disappointment has taken the shine off America's rejuvenated image around the world. Watch this space.