Brown Down, but Far From Out

The date may not have been announced yet, but it’s clear that campaigning for this year’s general election in the UK is already well underway. Making my way around London, it’s been hard to escape the giant poster of Conservative opposition leader David Cameron. “We can’t go on like this”, the 15-foot high blown-up Dave urges – and a cursory glance at the polls suggests many agree, with some having Labour trailing by over 10 points. On top of this, the Tories have a much larger campaign war-chest and Labour seem more set on working out whether they still want to be led by Gordon Brown than pulling off an electoral miracle.

So – is it safe to assume we’ll be seeing a change of government when Britain goes to the polls this spring?

Not quite.

Most importantly, there’s the economy – on which this Prime Minister’s reputation is especially dependent. When Brown assumed the office in 2007 he was able to contrast years of steady economic growth under his own stewardship as Chancellor with previous boom-bust cycles under the Tories. Whatever its causes, the global economic crisis has rather undermined this selling point in the minds of many.

Brown’s main hope, then, is that that voters see clear evidence of economic recovery before the Spring and there is a corresponding rise in his personal reputation. Cameron’s rhetoric on the economy to date has emphasized the need for austerity, spending cuts and a balanced budget. Contrast this with Brown’s aversion to even using the C-word and you start to see the strategy: wait for the economy to pick up, and then argue that Tory cuts will choke off the nascent recovery.

There are signs he may be helped by a more upbeat mood among consumers. As far back as October, GlobeScan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed that as many households expected to be better off in a year’s time as expect to be worse off. Forty-four per cent said they considered it a good time to buy major household goods, as opposed to 27% saying it was a bad time. Interestingly, a number of major retailers have recently reported trading figures for the festive period that are up on last year’s.

Structural factors may help Labour too – quirks of the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system mean that the Tories need to secure a disproportionately large swing in order to secure a governable majority.

Finally, there’s always the possibility of something terrible happening to derail the Conservative campaign. This year, for the first time, the public get treated to US-style debates between the party leaders. The ability of these to turn elections probably get exaggerated in light of the Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960, but there’s always the potential for gross blunders in live debate. Or the Tories could have one of their habitual internal implosions over European policy.

So, while the odds firmly favour a Tory victory - there’s still much campaigning to do: if enough of these factors - and particularly the economy - turn in Labour’s favour, then Brown could yet work the miracle.